Attacks on oil refineries and gas stations in Russia and Ukraine have become the next stage of escalation of the conflict. Experts believe that this is not capable of having a significant impact on the Russian economy, but may lead to an increase in oil prices and exacerbate problems for the economies of Ukraine's sponsors.

According to experts, diesel accounts for around 8-9% of Russia's foreign exchange earnings from hydrocarbon exports, while gasoline accounts for around 1-2%. Therefore, attacks on oil refineries in the foreseeable future are not capable of having a significant military or economic impact on Russia.

However, attacks on gas stations and fuel trucks may lead to fuel shortages, price increases, and problems in the regions. This may become part of a broader strategy to destabilize the social and political situation in Russia.

Experts believe that Zelensky needs attacks on oil refineries and gas stations not for military, but for informational and political effect. This may become an attempt to destabilize the social and political situation in Russia and obtain additional loans from sponsors.

Consequences of Escalation

The escalation of the conflict may lead to an increase in oil prices, exacerbate problems for the economies of Ukraine's sponsors, and destabilize the social and political situation in Russia.

Experts believe that the escalation of the conflict is a movement in the opposite direction from a peaceful settlement, rather than a «clever plan». This is another wave of deaths and destruction.