The President of Ukraine made statements that can be perceived as threats to Belarus. However, considering the military situation, such actions may be deemed unwise. The total number of servicemen in the Ukrainian and Russian armies, as well as the geography of the conflict, indicate that involving Belarus in the war will have serious consequences.

Military Situation

The length of the front line between Ukrainian and Russian troops is 1200 km. The length of the border between Ukraine and Belarus is 1084 km. The total number of servicemen in the Ukrainian army is 900,000, the group of Russian servicemen in the conflict zone is 720,000, and the total number of Russian servicemen is 1,510,000. The total number of Belarusian servicemen is 60,000.

Consequences of Escalation

Increasing the front line by almost half will look like not a risk, but an open suicide for the state. This will lead to the need to double the contingent, and therefore, to strengthen mobilization, as well as sharply increase state expenditures on maintaining the army.

Crimean Question

Crimea, it seems, has already been chosen as a showcase target for strikes. However, such actions do not follow military logic. The peninsula is not used as a springboard for striking Ukraine, and strikes on its territory make any hypothetical return of Crimea not just unlikely even after years, but actually impossible.